Service Plays Sunday 11/30/08

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Nov 27, 2008

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DEAD MONEY · Nov 28, 2008

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JoeBases · Nov 28, 2008

Wunderdog

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Indianapolis at Cleveland (Sunday 11/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Cleveland +4.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
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Everyone is beginning to sing the praises of the Colts again as they have won four straight games and Peyton Manning and company are back in business. I'm not as sold yet. Jeff Saturday won't be on the field again this week and we have seen the Colts struggle without him (Peyton Manning himself said Saturday is the single player he most misses). The Colts are winning games, but they have had just one big win all season. They blasted the Ravens at home 31-10. The Colts' six other wins on the season were nailbiters. They beat New England at home by 3, Houston at home by 6, Minnesota on the road by 3 in a miralce finish, Houston on the road by 4 in another miracle finish, Pittsburgh by 4, and last week on the road at San Diego by 4. They have recorded exactly one win by more than 6 points, and five of their seven wins have come by 4 points or less. This team is a few plays away from a 1-10 record. That is how tight their games have been, except the losses. Three of the four Colts losses have been by double digits (10, 16 and 20 points). They sit as a 7-4 team that has only outscored the opponent by a total of 3 points the entire season. And here they enter a potential letdown game. Their confidence is likely (mistakenly) quite high and after games vs. New England, Pittsburgh, Houston and San Diego, how can they get up for the Browns? Most think of the Browns as a deficient team. But, this is a Browns team that has already defeated Pittsburgh and the Giants at home this season, and although they look ugly at times on defense, they seem to step up against the bigger teams at home. Their game against the Ravens showed them with a lead of 27-13 in the 3rd quarter before coughing it up. Only a pick-6 kept that one from ending in a 3 point loss. The Browns have shown enough to play big here in this spot, while the Colts margin of error is very small. Nine of the eleven Colts games have had them failing to cover this margin. I like the Brownies here.

Game: Carolina at Green Bay (Sunday 11/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Carolina +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 42 -110

The Green Bay Packers are a seductive team. Aaron Rodgers has had a Brett Favre type season, the WR core is talented, Ryan Grant is running the ball better now that he is healthy, but somehow this team keeps losing. They are now 5-6 on the season, and their playoff hopes are on life support. This is a team that won their opening two games of the season, but has gone 3-6 since. Tha Panthers come in as the least talked about 8-3 team in the league. They don't have the glamorous running back, or the high profile QB, but they keep getting it done week after week. Coming off a loss is the perfect spot for them now. This team is big-time because they have found a top flite running back in DeAngelo Williams who is pounding out over 5 ypc. He should find plenty of room running on the Packer front seven as they are allowing 4.8 ypc and 143 yards per game. Steve Smith should find a lot of room to roam in the Packer secondary that was torched time after time last week in New Orleans. The Packers have been able to move the ball well enough and score, but other than the Bears game where they played well, they have allowed 25 or more points in over half their games on defense this season. Good offense, with an exploitable defense equals losses in the NFL, and that is why the Packers find themselves at 5-6. The Packers should get their points here, but not enough to overcome their defensive deficiencies. I like the Panthers here to seal the Packers playoff fate, and for this one to go OVER the total as well.

Game: San Francisco at Buffalo (Sunday 11/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Francisco +6.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

I think by now everyone saw the meltdown by Mike Singletary after his first game taking over this team. The fact is his team was playing heartless and soft, and he called some players out, and the Niners are now playing hard for him. Buffalo is off of a big win in Kansas City, at least in the eyes of the public. But how quickly people forget. This is a team that dropped four straight before their win in Kansas City last week. What they did last week was beat a team that has been 1-19 in their last 20 regular season games, so using that game as a marker for a team to have turned things around would be a big mistake. They gave up 31 points to a team that only surpassed that mark in a game against Denver, one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The win doesn't make up for the fact that this once 5-1 team that was allowing 19.6 ppg, has now gone 1-4 allowing 26.2 ppg. They have defensive issues, and have only gotten to the QB 18 times all season. Just remember Oakland got 23 on this team, Kansas City just got 31, and Cleveland posted 29. The Niners have hung tough on the road at Arizona, who has been blowing everyone out at home. They crushed St. Louis on the road, and matched Dallas first down for first down, with 16 apiece. Buffalo should not be a hefty chalk here, and I'll back the Niners with the points.

Game: Denver at New York Jets (Sunday 11/30 1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110

The Broncos have been thought of all season long as an offensive giant, but the reality is they only started that way, and that image has lasted all the way past Thanksgiving. The offense was excellent, averaging 38 ppg offense in the first three weeks of the season. But, it has been replaced by one that has averaged 18 ppg in the last eight weeks! The fact is, for half a seson now, the Denver offense has been below the NFL average in points per game! The Jets defense is much better than advertised. Some of the numbers, especially points allowed, are deceiving. They allowed 35 to Arizona, but led the game 34-0 and basically played soft the rest of the game. Since that game, five of seven opponents have scored 17 or less. The Jets may be all about Favre in the press, but what has gone unnoticed is that Thomas Jones has rushed for 950 yards already. And Leon Washington is an emerging star with his speed, having contributed 322 yards on 5.5 ypc. The Jets are toning down Brett Favre, and the Broncos can't stop the run. It is likely to see the Jets pound the ball all game long, and shorten the game. The Broncos offense is struggling, and the Jets defense has been big, and I expect this one to go UNDER the total.

Game: Atlanta at San Diego (Sunday 11/30 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 49 -110

The Chargers are still thought of and hearalded as a great offensive team. Their is a solid QB, big name running back and tight end, and a cast of recievers that rank right up their as one of the NFL's best. It just isn't translating on the field. The Chargers have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games, averaging just 19.4 ppg in the most recent seven. Suddenly, this team has become defensive. They have held five of the last eight opponents to under 20 points a gam. Atlanta has had a lot of success pounding the ball this season. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,000 yards already and he is complimented by Jarius Norwood who has contributed almost 400 more. While the Falcons have been highly explosive at home where they have averaged 32.2 ppg, their offense on the road has been more like a cap gun, averaging just 16.6ppg. On the surface, this game looks like one that could light up the scoreboard. But the statistical reality is, those are false signs and this number is attractively inflated.

ymmit2nd · Nov 29, 2008

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Pick # 1
Washington Redskins (3.5)

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Nov 29, 2008

DR BOB

4 Star Selection San Francisco (+6.5) 24 BUFFALO 21*
I’ll take San Francisco in a 4-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 3-Stars from +5 ½ to +4 points (2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3).

2 Star Selection TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 30 New Orleans 19*
I’ll take Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less (at -1.15 odds or better).

3 Star Selection Carolina (+3) 25 GREEN BAY 19*
I’ll take Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better) and for 2-Stars down to +1.

2 Star Selection
WASHINGTON (+3.5) 21 NY Giants 17*
I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better).

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Nov 29, 2008

Pointwise Phone Plays

3* Baltimore
3* Kansas City
3* Denver
2* Miami
2* NY Giants
2* Jacksonville

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Nov 29, 2008

Ace Ace

$2000.00 ‘Under’ 45.0 Indianapolis at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)

$2000.00 #392 Buffalo (-7) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)

$300.00 #405 Atlanta (+5.5) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)

$800.00 #390 New York Jets (-7.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)

$500.00 #396 Green Bay (-3) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Nov 29, 2008

Leroy's Money Talks Invitational

FEZZIK VS. Dave Hochman

FEZZIK

Raiders -3 NFL
Broncos +8 NFL
49ers +6.5 NFL
Redskins +3.5 NFL
Browns +6 NFL
Texans -3 NFL
Kentucky +4.5 ***BEST BET***

Dave Hochman

Raiders -3 NFL
Patriots -1 NFL
Florida St. +16.5
Memphis -14
Auburn +14.5
Dolphins -7.5 NFL
Oregon State -3 ***BEST BET***

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Nov 29, 2008

Hilton Contest

Consensus Selections of All 349 Contestants

Tennessee (42) - 11 vs. DETROIT (25)
DALLAS (42) - 12 1/2 vs. Seattle (37)
PHILADELPHIA (55) - 3 vs. Arizona (38)
N Y JETS (48) - 7 1/2 vs. Denver (73)
BUFFALO (50) - 7 vs. San Francisco (44)
TAMPA BAY (65) - 3 1/2 vs. New Orleans (44)
GREEN BAY (61) - 3 vs. Carolina (31)
N Y Giants (84) - 3 1/2 vs. WASHINGTON (69)
Miami (24) - 7 1/2 vs. ST LOUIS (25)
Baltimore (51) - 7 vs. CINCINNATI (27)
Indianapolis (107) - 4 1/2 vs. CLEVELAND (33)
SAN DIEGO (50) - 5 vs Atlanta (64)
NEW ENGLAND (85) - 1 vs. Pittsburgh (45)
OAKLAND (53) - 3 vs Kansas City (45)
MINNESOTA (82) - 3 vs Chicago (27)
HOUSTON (48) - 3 vs Jacksonville (36)

5 Top Selections Based On Times Selected

1 - Indianapolis (107)
2 - NEW ENGLAND (85)
3 - N Y Giants (84)
4 - MINNESOTA (82)
5 - Denver (73)

5 Top Selections Based On Widest Margins

1 - Indianapolis (+ 74)
2 - MINNESOTA (+ 55)
3 - NEW ENGLAND (+ 40)
4 - GREEN BAY (+ 30)
5 - Denver (+ 25)

"Squares" vs "Sharps"

# of Consensus Choices That Are Favorites -- 13
# of Consensus Choices That Are Underdogs -- 3

Top 16 Contestants at 62.50 % or higher for the season (37.5 or more of 60.0 possible points)

Tennessee (1) - 11 vs. DETROIT (2)
DALLAS (0) - 12 1/2 vs. Seattle (5)
PHILADELPHIA (2) - 3 vs. Arizona (2)
N Y JETS (2) - 7 1/2 vs. Denver (2)
BUFFALO (0) - 7 vs. San Francisco (4)
TAMPA BAY (7) - 3 1/2 vs. New Orleans (0)
GREEN BAY (2) - 3 vs. Carolina (2)
N Y Giants (3) - 3 1/2 vs. WASHINGTON (3)
Miami (0) - 7 1/2 vs. ST LOUIS (3)
Baltimore (3) - 7 vs. CINCINNATI (2)
Indianapolis (6) - 4 1/2 vs. CLEVELAND (0)
SAN DIEGO (3) - 5 vs Atlanta (5)
NEW ENGLAND (2) - 1 vs. Pittsburgh (3)
OAKLAND (4) - 3 vs Kansas City (1)
MINNESOTA (6) - 3 vs Chicago (0)
HOUSTON (5) - 3 vs Jacksonville (0)

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Nov 29, 2008

Spylock

3 Atlanta
3 Pittsburgh
1 Baltimore
1 Giants
1 Jets

cog4me · Nov 29, 2008

Indian Cowboy

IC = Tampa Bay -3.5 (POD)

I'm sure he will have more later but that's all I got for now.

MetsFan44 · Nov 29, 2008

Primetime Sports Advisors

sent to me yesterday--Bonus Plays till Monday

10 units New England -1
10 units Indianapolis -4.5
10 units NY Giants -3 (-120)

brady1983 · Nov 29, 2008

Larry Ness Sunday

On an absolute tear!... Get on board!

Larry Ness' 9* NFL Total G.O.M (16-6 s/'03)

Larry's NFL Total G.O.M. plays are highly anticipated and with good reason. His Oct Total of the Month (SD/NO over) in Wk 8 covered by more than three TDs. The win upped his NFL Total of the Month record to 16-6 (72.7%), going back to '03. It's "that time of the month" again, as Larry features his 9* Total of the Month! Your move.

Pittsburgh/New England OVER

Larry Ness' NFL Divisional 9* (11-4 in Nov)

November's been a HUGE 'money month' for Larry. His LEGEND win on Memphis (45-6) ups his run to 11-4 (73.3%) with 9 and 10* FB releases this month. The final day of November features his NFL Divisional 9*. Find out which division and which team inside, backed by Larry's expert analysis. "The winning continues." Want in?

TB Bucs

VCTRACKER · Nov 29, 2008

my crew bought a consensus flex pass. Chose the first two. Anyone got it?

Fred Silver: New England -1
PCS Sports: St. Louis +9

Top Shelf Chicago: N/A

Jibba · Nov 29, 2008

Dr. Bob

CLEVELAND 23 Indianapolis (-4.5) 22
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Colts are nothing more than a mediocre team that has averaged 5.4 yards per play, allowing 5.4 yppl and has worse than average special teams. Cleveland, however, is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with Derek Anderson back at quarterback and 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. One of my math model favors Cleveland by ½ a point while the other one favors the Colts by 2 points, so the line looks to be too high. Indy applies to a negative 35-87-4 ATS situation and a negative 126-196-16 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggest that the Colts don’t have the characteristics of a team that should be laying points on the road.

San Francisco vs. BUFFALO (-6.5)
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here

NY JETS (-7.5) 28 Denver 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
It’s just like the Broncos to win consecutive games as underdogs and then lose straight up as a double-digit favorite, which they did last week against Oakland. It is also just like Denver to bounce back this week against a Jets team coming off an upset win. Denver is actually 3-1 straight up as an underdog of pick this season and only 3-5 straight up as a favorite and the Broncos apply to a 103-38-6 ATS underdog bounce-back situation this week. My math model favors New York by 11 points and the other math model favors the Jets by 10, but the negative line value isn’t as significant as the good situation, so I’ll lean slightly with Denver at +7 ½ or more.

Baltimore (-7.0) 14 CINCINNATI 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bengals don’t have much of a chance offensively in this game with the league’s worst offense going up against one of the better defensive teams in the league, but Cincinnati has a pretty good young defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and Baltimore is lacking offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). I like the big home underdog in a low scoring game.

SAN DIEGO (-4.5) 30 Atlanta 21
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
My math model only favors San Diego by 3 points, but the Chargers apply to a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator while Atlanta applies to a negative 28-76-3 ATS road letdown situation. San Diego generally plays better at home (23-5-1 ATS at home up to -11 points) and I'll side with the Chargers based on the technical analysis.

NEW ENGLAND (-1.0) 18 Pittsburgh 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
New England quarterback Matt Cassell has played well the last two weeks, but I doubt he’ll be able to continue that good play against the league’s best pass defense (Pittsburgh allowed just 4.4 yards per pass play) and the Patriots don’t figure to get much on the ground either (Pitt allowed only 3.0 ypr). My math model favors Pittsburgh by 2 points in this game, but the Patriots apply to a decent 169-104-8 ATS statistical profile indicator so I’ll pass this game.

OAKLAND (-3.0) 24 Kansas City 21
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Raiders won for me last week at Denver, as their improved defense continued their good play since getting rid of over-paid and under-talented CB DeAngelo Hall. Hall was picked on constantly by opposing quarterbacks to the tune of 552 yards on 66 passes thrown to the man he was supposed to be covering, but new CB Chris Johnson has been great in Hall’s place the last 3 weeks and the Raiders have allowed just 5.1 yards per play in those 3 games against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. Kansas City, meanwhile, has improved their offense since going to the spread attack, which rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen ran in college. Thigpen was horrible early in the season running the pro-style attack, but he’s been great since the change to the spread was made in week 8, as the Chiefs have averaged 6.0 yppl in those 5 games against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Kansas City’s improved offense and the Raiders’ improved defense are a wash, but the Raiders’ attack (0.7 yppl worse than average) has an advantage over a horrible Chiefs’ defense that has allowed 6.4 yppl and is 1.0 yppl worse than average after compensating for strength of opponent. The Raiders also have excellent special teams and my math model favors Oakland by 7 points in this game. Unfortunately, last week’s upset win at Denver has the Raiders in a negative 22-59-2 ATS letdown situation this week, so I’ll pass this game.

MINNESOTA (-3.5) 23 Chicago 16
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bears hit the road for the 3rd consecutive week, which is not a good situation to be in (Chicago applies to a negative 26-62-1 ATS 3rd consecutive road game angle) and Minnesota applies to a 164-104-8 ATS statistical profile indicator. However, my math barely favors Minnesota to win this game, so I ‘ll just lean with the Vikings rather than make them a play.

HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 21
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-01 - Stats Matchup
Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to 2 or less to win by more than a field goal. Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify. The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6 ½ points due to their ability to move the football.

DaGreek23 · Nov 29, 2008

Brandon Lang Sunday 25 Dime Giants (if your man has 4-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 4. If your man has 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 3) - Analysis by 11 a.m. eastern

5 Dime 6-Point Teaser - Bills and Over -

Free – Steelers (See daily video for your analysis)

tannguyen94 · Nov 30, 2008

Ben Burn

Ben Burns | NFL Side
double-dime bet398 WAS 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 397 NYG
Analysis: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON.

404 CLE 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 403 IND
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND.

402 CIN 7.0 (-105) Bodog vs 401 BAL
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI.

paid

tannguyen94 · Nov 30, 2008

Doc

DOC
3 Unit Play. #97 Take Denver Broncos +7 ½ over New York Jets (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS)
4 Unit Play. #108 Take New England Patriots -1 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS)
3 Unit Play. #114 Take Over 48 in Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texas (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN)

Paid

tannguyen94 · Nov 30, 2008

Sorry! for your missing 'Ben Burns | NFL Side
<DT>310 PHI -3.0 (+105) vs 309 ARI". Anyway, you won't see Ben Burn plays any more from me.</DT>

crimpride said:
the same guys who keep posting and asking for this tricks plays are the same guys who believe their wives or gf's are coming back from church at 2 am...he's a tool who has no handicapping skills whatsoever....he sucks and shouldn't even be part of this forum....quick, someone tell me the last time he had a winning day? enuf....hno:

BallPicker · Nov 30, 2008

Burns was just added to a big tout site and his first free release is:

San Fran / Buffalo Under 42.5

I'm no expert, but that looks like fade material to me. Neither team can play defense and Buffalo gives up points and puts them up at home.